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By RYAN LIZZA and EUGENE DANIELS
With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
Speaker Nancy Pelosi is scheduled to land in Taiwan today for a visit that the entire U.S. national security leadership advised her not to take. | Malaysia’s Department of Information via AP
THAT WAS FAST — “Senate Republicans are reversing course on a veterans health care bill, signaling they’ll now help it quickly move to President Joe Biden’s desk after weathering several days of intense criticism for delaying the legislation last week.” (POLITICO’s Jordain Carney and Anthony Adragna)
BACKSTORY — Yesterday, DONALD TRUMP endorsed two rival candidates named ERIC (SCHMITT and GREITENS) in today’s Missouri Senate GOP primary. Alex Isenstadt has the full tale of a wild seven hours in Trumpworld that ended with the former president calling both candidates and telling each that they had earned his endorsement.
PELOSI TO TAIWAN TODAY — Speaker NANCY PELOSI is scheduled to land in Taiwan today for a visit that the entire U.S. national security leadership advised her not to take.
— Asia stocks tanked: “Stocks across Asia dropped on Tuesday morning, as investors prepared for a potential economic fallout” from Pelosi’s trip, per the FT.
— Chinese planes buzz median line: “China is ratcheting up military activity around Taiwan ahead of [Pelosi’s visit]. Several Chinese fighter jets flew close to the median line that divides the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday morning, according to a Taiwanese official briefed on the developments, in a reminder to Taipei that Beijing’s air force could reach the island in a matter of minutes. Military units across the People’s Liberation Army’s Southern Theatre Command, which is in charge of the South China Sea and some Taiwan-related missions, have entered a status of high alert, according to military officials in two neighbouring countries,” per the FT.
— U.S. Navy deploys four warships east of Taiwan: “‘While they are able to respond to any eventuality, these are normal, routine deployments,’ [a U.S. Naval] official said, who spoke on the condition of anonymity,” reports Reuters.
The FT also reports that Pelosi is scheduled to meet on Wednesday with Taiwanese President TSAI ING-WEN.
NYT’s Tom Friedman lays out an impassioned case against the trip:“Why Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan Is Utterly Reckless.” His big argument, backed up with what seems like a significant scoop, is that JOE BIDEN has successfully restrained China from aiding Russia in its war with Ukraine, and Pelosi’s trip risks triggering confrontations with both countries:
“To help create the greatest possibility of Ukraine reversing Putin’s invasion, Biden and his national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN held a series of very tough meetings with China’s leadership, imploring Beijing not to enter the Ukraine conflict by providing military assistance to Russia. …
“Biden, according to a senior U.S. official, personally told President XI JINPING that if China entered the war in Ukraine on Russia’s side, Beijing would be risking access to its two most important export markets — the United States and the European Union. (China is one of the best countries in the world at manufacturing drones, which are precisely what Putin’s troops need most right now.)
“By all indications, U.S. officials tell me, China has responded by not providing military aid to Putin — at a time when the U.S. and NATO have been giving Ukraine intelligence support and a significant number of advanced weapons that have done serious damage to the military of Russia, China’s ostensible ally.
“Given all of that, why in the world would the speaker of the House choose to visit Taiwan and deliberately provoke China now, becoming the most senior U.S. official to visit Taiwan since NEWT GINGRICH in 1997, when China was far weaker economically and militarily? The timing could not be worse.”
WaPo: “White House warns China not to overreact to expected Pelosi visit to Taiwan”
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PRIMARY DAY: WHAT TO WATCH — Voters go to the polls in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington today. We’re watching four big storylines:
— The Senate battlefield: Sen. MARK KELLY, one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats, will finally know who his GOP opponent is in the much-watched Arizona Senate race. Polls give PETER THIEL-bankrolled and Trump-endorsed BLAKE MASTERS an edge over self-funded solar power executive JIM LAMON. In Missouri, it’s the battles of the Erics. If the scandal-plagued Greitens wins, Democrats have a shot at picking up this otherwise safe red seat.
— Swing-state governors: In Arizona, the GOP gubernatorial primary pits Trump-backed former TV anchor KARI LAKE against KARRIN TAYLOR ROBSON, a former state board of regents member backed by MIKE PENCE and outgoing Gov. DOUG DUCEY. Polling shows Lake as the favorite. In Michigan, conservative media personality TUDOR DIXON seems to have emerged as the frontrunner from a messy GOP primary to decide who will face Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER.
— Pro-impeachment Republicans: Rep. PETER MEIJER (R-Mich.), and Reps. DAN NEWHOUSE and JAIME HERRERA BEUTLER, both from Washington, voted to impeach Trump. They’ll find out today if the vote cost them their jobs.
— The first post-Dobbs abortion test: Voters in Kansas will decide whether to change their state constitution to allow legilsators to restrict or ban abortion. More from Alice Miranda Ollstein
Read the full rundown and analysis on all the key races today from Zach Montellaro, Ally Mutnick and Natalie Allison.
THE AUGUST PRIMARY CALENDAR Aug. 2 Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington Aug. 4 Tennessee Aug. 9 Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin Aug. 13 Hawaii Aug. 16 Alaska and Wyoming Aug. 23 Florida and New York
WATCH: “Greitens falls behind in Missouri, and other Aug. 2 primaries,” by Renee Klahr and Steven Shepard
Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
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BIG NEWS — The U.S. killed Al Qaeda leader AYMAN AL-ZAWAHRI in a drone strike over the weekend, firing two hellfire missiles at his safehouse in Kabul, Afghanistan. Zawahri, a key plotter of the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, took over the reins of the terrorist network after the 2011 killing of OSAMA BIN LADEN.
NYT: “The early-morning strike in the heart of downtown Kabul over the weekend capped a 21-year manhunt for an Egyptian radical who more than anyone besides Bin Laden was deemed responsible for the deadliest foreign attack on the United States in modern times and never gave up targeting Americans. … Often seen sitting by Bin Laden’s side with his gray beard and fierce scowl, al-Zawahri, 71, never achieved the same global notoriety as the terrorist mastermind but was widely considered the intellectual force behind Al Qaeda.”
AP: “His family, supported by the Haqqani Taliban network, had taken up residence in the home after the Taliban regained control of the country last year, following the withdrawal of U.S. forces after nearly 20 years of combat that had been intended, in part, to keep al-Qaida from regaining a base of operations in Afghanistan.”
CNN: “Throughout the months-long effort to plan this weekend's strike, Biden repeatedly tasked his officials with ensuring civilians — including members of Zawahiri's family — weren't killed. None were, according to the White House.”
BIDEN’S TUESDAY: — 10:15 a.m.: The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief. — 2:45 p.m.: Biden will take part virtually in an event with Michigan Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER as she signs an executive directive to implement the CHIPS and Science Act. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 3:30 p.m. VP KAMALA HARRIS’ TUESDAY — The VP has nothing on her public schedule. THE SENATE is in, with a recess from 12:30 p.m. to 2:15 p.m. for weekly conference meetings. THE HOUSE is out.
STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.
Signs in favor of and against the Kansas Constitutional Amendment on Abortion are displayed outside the highway in Lenexa, Kansas, on Monday, August 1. | Kyle Rivas/Getty Images
BIDEN ISOLATED — As he grapples with a case of rebound coronavirus, Biden will likely have to isolate at least until Thursday, AP’s Zeke Miller and Darlene Superville report. The prolonged diagnosis “has left him antsy about returning to a normal schedule.”
RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES — So… what’s in that side deal on energy permitting that Democratic leaders acquiesced to in order to get Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) on board with reconciliation? WaPo’s Jeff Stein and Tony Romm obtained a one-page summary, which outlines plans to “overhaul the nation’s process for approving new energy projects, including by expediting a gas pipeline proposed for West Virginia.” Environmentalists had mixed reactions, though many view the tradeoff as worth it.
How Democrats could get it past progressives: “[T]hree people familiar with Mr. Manchin’s agreement said Democratic leaders were likely to insert the Mountain Valley Pipeline and permitting provisions into a must-pass piece of legislation, such as the bill that funds the federal government, to maximize its chances,” reports NYT’s Lisa Friedman.
— Democrats are facing a wild week, as they’ll likely have the reconciliation bill on the Senate floor before it’s been thoroughly vetted and considered, Marianne LeVine and Caitlin Emma report. Among the obstacles: a CBO score, hearings before the parliamentarian, the mystery of Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.) and Republican attempts to gum up the works. “Should any of those Republican objections succeed, the strict rules that govern the package’s ability to pass without a single GOP backer would force Democrats to amend the bill at the last minute, delaying a final vote.” And the parliamentarian hasn’t even weighed in yet on the drug pricing proposals.
RNC TEAMS UP WITH ‘STOP THE STEAL’ ACTIVISTS — The Republican National Committee is working with CLETA MITCHELL and other election-denying conspiracy theorists “to pilot a sweeping ‘election integrity’ operation to recruit and coach thousands of poll workers in eight battleground states,” Heidi Przybyla reveals in POLITICO this morning. Recordings she obtained of JOSH FINDLAY and Mitchell show that the “election integrity” effort is not just about getting enough poll workers for upcoming elections, but about stopping Democrats from succeeding in creating a “new American majority,” as Mitchell put it. The RNC called the report “fearmongering.”
2024 WATCH — Manchin’s move to craft a reconciliation deal already has the GOP dreaming about unseating him in 2024, Burgess Everett reports this morning. Though “Democrats see plenty of upside for Manchin in the bill,” including West Virginia pork, Republicans now “sense a rare opportunity in the current moment.” Among the names being mentioned as GOP challengers are Rep. ALEX MOONEY, state A.G. PATRICK MORRISEY and state Treasurer RILEY MOORE. Manchin hasn’t yet made a decision about running for reelection.
REALITY CHECK — There was no merit to the claims that Arizona’s 2020 election saw dead people casting ballots en masse, state A.G. MARK BRNOVICH said in a letter Monday, declaring that his office had ended its investigation into the matter. “After spending hundreds of hours reviewing these allegations, our investigators were able to determine that only one of the 282 individuals on the list was deceased at the time of the election.” More from the Arizona Republic
CASH DASH — The RNC has almost $40 million on hand, having raised $14.5 million in the latest monthly report, Fox News’ Brooke Singman scooped. The RNC has also made 40 million “voter contacts” so far this cycle. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, California, New Jersey and Texas top the list.
— Liberals are fighting back in the school culture wars, as the Campaign for Our Shared Future plans to spend big across 15 states in the midterms and through 2024, Juan Perez Jr. reports. New executive director HEATHER HARDING says the nonpartisan but Democratic-linked group has already raised $9 million and plans to get millions more. “Their goal: Organize parents, educators and students to press against conservative-led legislation and political rhetoric targeting how race, gender and curriculum are addressed at K-12 campuses.”
THE WIZARD OF OZ — MEHMET OZ had personal financial stakes in some of the health supplements he touted as a TV doctor, The Daily Beast’s Sam Brodey reports. Oz and his platforms promoted products from PanTheryx without disclosing that he sat on its board of directors, for instance.
ARTHUR CAPLAN, medical ethics expert: “You simply cannot do what he’s disclosing he did. … It’s not illegal … but certainly, ethically, it’s completely dubious.”
PRIMARY COLORS — Rep. MONDAIRE JONES (D-N.Y.) is seen as a progressive rising star. But following New York’s redistricting shakeup, he’s running in a district he hasn’t represented at all — and facing a difficult path to victory, including voters who think he’s in a different seat, Axios’ Andrew Solender reports.
Jones, on opting against running in the same district as Rep. JAMAAL BOWMAN or DCCC Chair SEAN PATRICK MALONEY: “I did not want to run against a fellow Black progressive … [or] the guy whose primary job responsibility is to fend off fascism.”
Jones landed Pelosi’s endorsement Monday, per the N.Y. Daily News.
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CUFFARI UNBOWED — DHS IG JOSEPH CUFFARI, under pressure over his handling of deleted Jan. 6-related texts, decried an “onslaught of meritless criticism” and “untruths and false information about our work” in an internal email Monday, Betsy Woodruff Swan reports. His defiant tone suggests he’ll resist Democratic calls for him to step aside in his investigation, which Reps. CAROLYN MALONEY (D-N.Y.) and BENNIE THOMPSON (D-Miss.) renewed Monday, calling on him to testify before Congress. Outside watchdogs and one staffer in Cuffari’s office told Betsy Cuffari should leave.
GRAHAM UNBOWED — Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) filed a motion Monday claiming legislative privilege against the Fulton County, Ga., subpoena seeking his cooperation in the investigation into the post-2020 election period. Graham’s filing said the Constitution “provides absolute protection against inquiry into Senator Graham’s legislative acts.” More from USA Today
— Graham has retained DON MCGAHN, former Trump White House counsel, on his legal team in the matter, report ABC’s Olivia Rubin and Katherine Faulders.
HUTCHINSON REVELATION — Star Jan. 6 committee hearing witness CASSIDY HUTCHINSON continued working for Trump for more than two months after he left office (and thus well after Jan. 6), Insider’s Dave Levinthal and Ryan Barber scooped. She remained on his taxpayer-funded payroll through April 1, 2021.
ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL — Several years ago, the U.S. had 20 million doses of the Jynneos vaccine now in extraordinarily short supply as the monkeypox outbreak grows, but the government let them expire, NYT’s Joseph Goldstein reports.
— The Biden admin response: ROBERT FENTON will be named the White House monkeypox coordinator today, AP’s Zeke Miller scooped. He was acting FEMA administrator during the coronavirus vaccine rollout. DEMETRE DASKALAKIS, a CDC HIV prevention leader, will be his deputy.
— California and Illinois declared monkeypox a public health emergency statewide Monday.
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Alex Wagner’s new MSNBC show has a name: “Alex Wagner Tonight.” It premieres Aug. 16 at 9 p.m.
Michael Avenatti’s $4.5 million jet is a forfeiture target for federal prosecutors.
Kevin Costner, “Yellowstone” star, is backing Liz Cheney.
Paul Pelosi, the Speaker’s husband, is scheduled to be arraigned in Napa County, California, on Wednesday morning on charges that include driving under the influence of alcohol causing injury.
ONLY IN PLAYBOOK — Peter Thiel, the libertarian-minded tech billionaire and Republican megadonor, is renovating the 10,000-square-foot Washington manse he purchased for $13 million last August from Trump-era Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Hilary Geary Ross, Daniel Lippman reports.
It’s the latest sign of Thiel’s growing footprint in D.C. Thiel has been methodically putting together all of the pieces for an expanded role here. First Thiel bankrolled two newbie Senate candidates who worked for him: J.D. Vance in Ohio and Blake Masters in Arizona. He then engineered endorsements from Donald Trump for both Vance, which wasn’t a tough sell, and Masters, which was. Vance won in May. Masters is the favorite to prevail in the Arizona primary today. If one or both make it to Washington, the new Thiel caucus in the Senate just might need a place to meet and plot strategy. Chez Thiel should be ready to serve that purpose.
On Monday morning, the driveway’s gate was wide open, a workman’s truck was parked near the house’s entrance, Tyvek HomeWrap covered new construction materials as they lay on the ground, and a large dumpster parked in front of the building was filled with pieces of wood and other construction debris. Passersby in the Woodland-Normanstone neighborhood could hear the whirring of power tools in use inside the building. A neighbor told Lippman that Thiel has not yet taken up residence in the house.
Thiel purchased the house using an LLC called Salona Village Holdings that concealed his identity. At the time of the sale, Geary Ross told POLITICO that a confidentiality agreement barred the Rosses from disclosing the buyer’s name. (Thiel declined to buy any of the Rosses’ Palm Beach-style custom furniture, according to a person familiar with the matter.)
The home was built in 1927 and — at least before the current renovation — had seven bedrooms, a 12-seat theater, a library, a caterer’s kitchen and staff quarters, according to the property’s Zillow page (which has 75 photos). The Rosses bought the house from businesswoman and philanthropist Adrienne Arsht. Thiel and a spokesperson didn’t respond to a request for comment on his plans for the house.
OUT AND ABOUT — The Bipartisan Policy Center, the Orrin G. Hatch Foundation and the Edward M. Kennedy Institute for the United States Senate hosted a debate between Sens. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) at George Washington University on Monday night. The senators answered questions from CBS News’ Nikole Killion on inflation, gun safety, the southern border and abortion. Pic … SPOTTED:Joe Kennedy, Jason Grumet, Kelly Veney Darnell, Frank Sesno, Matt Sandgren, Mark Walsh and Bruce Percelay.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Helena Bottemiller Evich, former POLITICO extraordinaire, today is launching Food Fix, a new newsletter focused on food policy. It goes live midday. She’ll have an interview with FDA Commissioner Robert Califf, including new info about a review of the agency’s food program.
WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Sheila Grant has been named senior presidential speechwriter and special assistant to the president. She most recently has been chief of staff to Delaware Gov. John Carney.
STAFFING UP — Amanda Trocola is now deputy social secretary to VP Kamala Harris. She most recently was associate director of the executive office at the One Campaign.
TRANSITIONS — Judd Smith is joining Amazon from the Senate Judiciary GOP, “bolstering its efforts to stymie a new antitrust bill aimed at U.S. technology companies,” per Bloomberg. … Matt Corridoni is taking over the DCCC Midwest press desk through Election Day. He most recently has been comms director for Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.), to which he’ll return full time after the midterms. … Cathy Livingston is joining the Open Society Foundations as general counsel. She previously was a partner at Jones Day. …
… Steptoe and Johnson LLP has added Brian Fleming and Tyler Evans as partners. Fleming was previously with Miller & Chevalier Chartered and is a DOJ alum. Evans was previously a partner with Covington & Burling LLP. … The Recording Industry Association of America is adding Erin Burr as VP of media relations, Jonathan Mancera as digital strategist and Ashley Donald as studio and stage manager. Burr most recently was at Big Machine Label Group. … Jasmine Shoureh is now press and digital coordinator for Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.). She previously was press assistant for Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Ariz.).
ENGAGED — John Lee, senior policy adviser for Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.), and Alex Przybelski, director of grassroots advocacy at the National Association of Manufacturers, got engaged at their new home in Shaw on Friday, after six years of dating. They celebrated with family, friends and their 2.5-year-old Russell terrier, Scout. Pic
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) … Rep. Burgess Owens (R-Utah) … D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser (5-0) … NYT’s Matthew Rosenberg … Gigi Sohn … Fox News’ Rich Edson … Kevin Walling … RNC’s Nick Ballas … Peter Mihalick … Caitlin Huey-Burns of CBS … Emily Gershon … Sarah Bittleman … Camille Gallo … David Eiselsberg … Geneva Kropper … Austin Laufersweiler of the Partnership for Public Service … Jeff Ballou … Patrick Ruffini of Echelon Insights … Michael Manganiello … retired Army Col. Jack H. Jacobs … Brynn Barnett … former Reps. Nancy Boyda (D-Kan.) and Dan Boren (D-Okla.) … Laura Nasim … former Treasury Secretary John Snow … Brian Montgomery … Betsy Lawrence of House Judiciary … The New Yorker’s Lawrence Wright (75) … Dennis Prager … Kolby Lee
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