As Europe swelters from a record-breaking heatwave, it might seem odd to make plans to stay warm this winter, but that is what the European Commission will do tomorrow when it unveils a drastic programme to ration gas use over the coming months.

Consumers in the bloc – and in Britain – could face further pressures on household bills, with energy-intensive industries also facing possible problems securing enough fuel at any price.

With Russia winding down its natural gas supplies to the rest of Europe, Brussels is set to announce steep gas reduction targets. The scheme is part of a European Union effort to save energy over the summer and autumn so that storage tanks are filled by the time the winter chill sets in.

The proposals will be contentious. There is uncertainty whether the Commission can impose mandatory targets on national governments, and how to set the targets across both industry and consumer use. But officials say the EU needs to act now to avoid major gas shortages and rationing in winter when its most vulnerable citizens can least afford to go without it. They also warn about the devastating consequences for the European economy if gas is trimmed: German industry would be particularly affected as sectors like glass and chemicals are intensive energy users.

The Commission is preparing for the worst, given that Russia provided some 40 per cent of the bloc’s gas imports last year. Moscow has already shut off gas deliveries to Finland, Poland, Bulgaria and the Baltic states. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which pumps gas from Siberia to Germany, fell to about a third of its usual level last month, before being completely shut off a week ago, ostensibly for annual maintenance.

Hopes that Nord Stream could revert to normal were dampened yesterday when operator Gazprom declared “force majeure” on gas supplies to Germany, claiming it could not fulfil its supply obligations owing to “extraordinary” circumstances outside its control.

However, the real reason that gas supplies are being reduced to a trickle, EU officials say, is because Europe backed Ukraine after Russia’s invasion in February. They believe Russian President Vladimir Putin is punishing EU countries and trying to weaken the resolve of the European public as fuel prices climb.

EU leaders knew that they risked seeing gas choked if they defied Mr Putin: at the same time as they sanctioned the Kremlin and channelled arms to Ukraine, they moved to find alternative gas suppliers, notably producers of liquified natural gas (LNG).

But with a winter energy crisis looming, the EU is intensifying its efforts. On Monday, Commission president Ursula von der Leyen was in Azerbaijan to announce a gas deal to increase deliveries of natural gas from the Caucasus to the EU to 12bn cubic metres (bcm) this year, up from 8.1 bcm in 2021.

In May, EU leaders set a target for countries to fill up gas storage containers by at least 80 per cent before November with the Commission able to intervene if it looked unlikely the objective would be met. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, gas storage across the EU is now 64 per cent full, but in some countries, such as Bulgaria and Croatia, this figure is only around 40 per cent.

On Monday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) urged Europe to take immediate steps to slash gas consumption ahead of the winter, saying governments should cap air conditioning use and start auctioning gas to industry or risk rationing. The agency said Europe had to curb consumption by 12 bcm between now and the start of the heating season, or the equivalent of 130 tanker loads of seaborne liquefied natural gas.

“Europe needs to act now and make every remaining day count,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said. “Simple steps such as turning down the heating by a couple of degrees in Europe can save the same amount of natural gas that is supplied over the winter by the Nord Stream pipeline.”

He was echoed by an analysis from Brussels-based think tank Bruegel says that without Russian gas, the EU will have to reduce demand by around 15 per cent – although that rises to 29 per cent in Germany. “Meeting winter gas demand solely based on non-Russian supplies will only work if consumption is substantially lower than in previous years,” said Bruegel senior fellow Georg Zachmann.

All rights reserved. © 2021 Associated Newspapers Limited.